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(本圖重點:台灣世界最快打完疫苗的國家之一,預計今年底之前) The rollout of vaccines against the coronavirus (Covid-19) has started in developed countries, but mass immunisation will take time. Production represents the main hurdle, as many developed countries have pre-ordered more doses than they need. The costs associated with mass immunisation programmes will be significant, especially for less-developed countries that have limited fiscal resources. Vaccine diplomacy will play a role in determining which countries get access to a vaccine in the coming months. Russia and China will use the rollout of their own coronavirus shots to advance their interests. With priority groups vaccinated in rich economies by end-March, The EIU expects global economic prospects to brighten from mid-2021. For most middle-income countries, including China and India, the vaccination timeline will stretch to late 2022. In poorer economies, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved before 2023, if at all. In early 2021 three vaccines, from Pfizer (US)-BioNTech (Germany), Moderna (US) and AstraZeneca-Oxford University (UK), will be rolled out on a massive scale in developed countries. Meanwhile, Chinese and Russian vaccines are being rolled out both domestically and to emerging countries such as Egypt, via diplomatic bilateral deals. This will foster so-called vaccine diplomacy— with Russia and China trying to bolster their global status via the delivery of vaccines—this year and beyond. Countries at the front of the queue—including the UK, the US and most countries in the EU—are expected to have immunised their priority groups by end-March, with other wealthy countries catching up by end-June. We therefore expect that global economic prospects will brighten from mid-2021, with the global economic rebound gaining speed in the third and fourth quarters. However, life will not be back to normal by then, as immunisation programmes for the bulk of the population will continue until mid-2022. Among middle-income countries, Russia, which has developed its own vaccines, could be on a similar schedule to richer economies, with mass immunisation completed by mid-2022. Other middle-income countries, including Mexico and Brazil, have been promised supplies in return for running clinical trials or housing production factories. This should give them early access to doses for priority groups, although their ability to achieve mass vaccination will depend on other factors including fiscal space, population size, number of healthcare workers, infrastructure and political will. China and India represent special cases; both countries have developed their own shots and are pressing ahead with rollout plans, but the sheer size of their population means that mass immunisation programmes will stretch until late 2022, in line with the expected timeline for most middle-income countries. Finally, some other middle-income countries and most low-income countries will be relying on COVAX, an initiative led by the WHO that aims to secure 6bn doses of vaccine for poorer countries. The first 2bn of these will be given in 2021, mainly to healthcare workers (COVAX doses will cover only up to 20% of the population of each country). However, COVAX supplies may be slow to arrive, especially if delays in the production for and delivery to richer countries push back delivery dates for poorer nations. In these developing countries, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved before 2023, if it happens at all. Methodology: This map depicts the latest forecasts from The EIU for the rollout of coronavirus vaccines, reflecting the time when countries may expect to have vaccinated the majority (60-70%) of their adult population. Criteria taken into account include supply deals, production constraints, vaccine hesitancy, the size of the population, and the availability of healthcare workers. The data are also adjusted by analysts to reflect specific conditions on the ground. “The contrast between rich countries and poorer ones is stark. Most developing countries will not have widespread access to the shots before 2023 at the earliest. Some of these countries—particularly poorer ones with a young demographic profile—may well lose the motivation to distribute vaccines, especially if the disease has spread widely or if the associated costs prove too high.” AGATHE DEMARAIS, THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT GLOBAL FORECASTING DIRECTOR Ms Demarais adds that “Vaccine diplomacy will also be an important trend to keep an eye on. Both Russia and China will seek to adopt a transactional approach to the delivery of vaccines, using coronavirus shots as a bargaining chip to advance long-standing interests.” Finally, Ms Demarais adds that “Vaccines against many diseases, such as polio or tuberculosis, have been available for decades. However, many people in poorer countries remain unable to get access to them. What was termed a “ novel coronavirus” only one year ago will be with us for the long term, alongside the many other diseases that have shaped life over the centuries.” Download our report “Coronavirus vaccines: expect delays” to find out more. 4.附註、心得、想法︰ ※ 40字心得、備註 ※ 簡單來說,經濟學人預估何時可以打完的方式是利用 買不買得到疫苗、硬體設備好不好、總人口數、醫療體系完備程度 作為評分要點 所以根據經濟學人的預測,台灣會在世界第一批打完疫苗的國家之內 預計在2021年底前會打到群體免疫 甚至比日本、韓國還要快打到60-70% 再貼一次圖: https://imgur.com/SR3isNG
以下開放柯韓五毛崩潰經濟學人綠共側翼野雞雜誌 ※ 「Live」、「新聞」、「轉錄」此類文章每日發文數總上限為3篇, 自刪與板主刪除,同樣計入額度 ※ --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: (日本) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1613100596.A.F46.html
swbthj: 野雞雜誌是綠共大外宣 02/12 11:31
Robben: 大內宣 02/12 11:31
Pietro: 等台灣媒體轉報吧 02/12 11:32
※ 編輯: goldenfire ( 日本), 02/12/2021 11:35:24
miler22020: 拜粉要把這雜誌丟了 02/12 11:34
iamsocool: 日本南韓人口比我們多幾倍耶.. 02/12 11:37
goldenfire: 韓國是台灣兩倍 日本大概5倍 02/12 11:38
alinalovers: 美國放在by late 2021我覺得有點太樂觀了 02/12 11:39
seth582025: 台灣優先施打:可憐被白嫖還要做人體實驗 02/12 11:40
seth582025: 台灣施打落後:可悲國外都打完了才輪到你 02/12 11:40
miler22020: 不會 美國現在打老人跟醫護 一天能打150萬 02/12 11:41
miler22020: 開放大眾後 絕對年底前打完 02/12 11:41
crazypeo45: 這倒是沒什麼問題 如果國外國內疫苗都到位那基本上 02/12 11:42
goldenfire: 不過經濟學人真的是很友善台灣 country of the year 02/12 11:42
crazypeo45: 馬上打完 因為14天隔離不可能持續下去 02/12 11:43
creay222: 因為台灣人打疫苗比例一直很高 02/12 11:44
creay222: 所以這樣推估滿合理的 02/12 11:44
Linerange: 目前Covex476萬+AZ 1000萬+莫德納500萬劑 02/12 11:45
c1951: 這次又花多少錢買新聞? 02/12 11:47
dash007: 太樂觀,疫情的穩定、病毒變種快速,會讓民眾傾向先觀望 02/12 11:48
dash007: 國外施打成效再決定是否打 02/12 11:48
Pietro: 如果國產成功就有機會達成3000萬劑的群體免疫目標 02/12 11:49
dash007: 以病毒變異快速的狀況來看,除非各國都穩定下來,否則不 02/12 11:50
dash007: 能縮短隔離天數 02/12 11:50
lymyuming: 這個連綠共蟑螂們都不信,真-野雞雜誌 02/12 11:51
david624: 柯糞群體崩潰 02/12 11:54
Linerange: 國產已經訂500萬劑看另一間也成那就夠了 02/12 11:54
yun0112: 野G雜誌 02/12 11:55
Yelich: 綠共自己都沒意願打 這一定假的啦 02/12 11:56
EggAcme: 柯韓粉:大外宣 柯韓粉全家都確診拿去火葬場燒了 02/12 11:57
fullsorry: 捧殺? 02/12 11:58
Koibito: 滯台支那賤畜表示不開心 02/12 11:58
touchbird: 一堆智障啊 排在美國後面好像多委屈一樣 02/12 12:01
CavendishJr: 應該跟人口有關,AZ跟moderna跟COVAX有按時交貨,台 02/12 12:05
CavendishJr: 灣就能打50%的人口了 02/12 12:05
CavendishJr: 啊對了這篇記得拿去八卦爆卦呀 02/12 12:06
Linerange: 初一宇晴就要上班啦好辛苦 02/12 12:07
alovethere: 樂觀 02/12 12:09
nextbit: 醒醒 02/12 12:10
ShockG: 人口數啊 買得到疫苗就能先打完了 02/12 12:11
mytaiwan: 野雞雜誌啦 綠共大內宣:) 02/12 12:12
hesione: 美國最大障礙是很多人不想打 02/12 12:14
frozenmoon: 綠共大內宣 02/12 12:15
aph860212: 野雞小報 02/12 12:16
creay222: 國家機器動的很厲害 民進黨側翼組織 02/12 12:20
kipi91718: 綠共J外圍 02/12 12:25
boogieman: 廣西台獨怎麼還不出來叫兩聲? 02/12 12:34
airbear: 冷門雜誌 02/12 12:51
stitchris: 放心 國民黨會代理共產黨出來搞事的 02/12 12:59
RLH: 很好啊 02/12 13:04
cerberi: 讚 02/12 13:19
gogoegg: 有錢、人口數不要太多 就會快一點打完 02/12 13:19
gogoegg: 還有 民眾不會太白目 打死不打疫苗 02/12 13:20
wx190: 有人說台灣防疫很爛還蓋牌 02/12 13:38
umano: 司機表示 02/12 13:42
starport: 柯憨糞氣哭:明明台灣應該很焦慮啊 02/12 13:44
djdjdj: 感覺台灣人沒有那麼想打疫苗,但如果說要打疫苗才能出國 02/12 13:54
djdjdj: ,可能吸引力更大 02/12 13:54
LuckyQ: 想太多,誰要打疫苗 02/12 13:56
tomchow76: 挖靠 比日本韓國澳洲還要早打完 02/12 14:07
stocktonty: 誘因如果是“打完出國不用隔離”一定一堆人搶著打 02/12 14:17
OoJudyoO: 阿伯阿嬸們還是會打啦 02/12 14:19
OoJudyoO: 年輕人想出國也會去打 02/12 14:19
ms0443001: 啊 台灣就有錢 人口相對其他大國少 國土小 02/12 14:38
ms0443001: 當然打得快 02/12 14:38
ms0443001: but柯韓糞一樣崩潰就4惹 02/12 14:38
akway: 台灣打疫苗率 一直都比歐美高且有效率 只要有得到疫苗 速 02/12 14:43
akway: 度就很快 02/12 14:43
akway: 台灣診所多 公衛體系完整 施打速度世界一流 02/12 14:44
iWatch2: 反正柯韓粉都活在自己幻想的世界 數據啥的不重要 02/12 14:45
iWatch2: 還會去頭去尾造謠勒 有夠柯憐的 02/12 14:46
mainsa: 台灣醫療體系的水準跟效率屌打世界所有國家 如果有疫苗當 02/12 14:53
mainsa: 然可以最快打完 台灣大量的診所跟地區醫院 甚至偏遠地區 02/12 14:53
mainsa: 也都有衛生所 而且還有全國連線的健保系統 應該沒有國家 02/12 14:53
mainsa: 要打疫苗能比台灣快的 02/12 14:53
Finarfin: 跟健保體系有關吧 02/12 14:54
CCfss: 台灣的戶政和健保系統這些比國外方便讓全民施打。 02/12 14:57
Finarfin: 這篇去數字板應該會被刪除 然後昨天柯臭嘴疫苗的新聞在 02/12 15:25
Finarfin: 數字板也沒po 不過腦粉依然師傅好棒棒 02/12 15:25
fromwilda: 推 02/12 15:32
creulfact: 我覺得誘因應該是打了確實有效 然後大家急著出國玩 但 02/12 16:12
creulfact: 這些都需要時間觀察 02/12 16:12
creulfact: 不然出國回來還有關14天換作是我 也不會想出國 然後就 02/12 16:13
creulfact: 不想打疫苗了 因為副作用也還不是很確定 02/12 16:13
NanaoNaru: 等打疫苗有一定進度後4%就會想出國,開始罵14天政策 02/12 16:31
rronbang: 人少的關係? 02/12 18:24
s555666: 柯屁:...... 02/12 18:54
bryant780417: 馬的民進黨又收買媒體了 02/12 19:59
qwilfish: 綠營側翼 02/12 20:24


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